马斯克说对了！继芯片后又一东西全球疯抢，中国或成最大受益者

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing global demand for transformers, which has become a critical component in the energy transition, as predicted by Elon Musk two years ago [1][3][31] - China has emerged as the largest supplier of transformers, leveraging its decades of industrial strength and supply chain advantages to secure significant overseas orders [3][16][41] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The surge in demand for transformers is driven by the global expansion of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, which require transformers for voltage conversion to integrate into the main power grid [8][10] - The rise in electric vehicle ownership and the construction of charging stations and energy storage facilities have further increased the need for transformers [8][10] - Aging global power grids, with 70% of them past their service life, have created a rigid demand for new transformers, particularly in the U.S. where the average transformer age is 30-40 years [10][14] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The production of transformers is complex, involving over a hundred processes, high technical barriers, and long production cycles, with new factories taking 1-2 years to establish [11][14] - The average delivery time for transformers has extended to 2.3-4 years globally, exacerbating supply shortages [11][14] - Major companies like Hitachi Energy are investing heavily, such as a $6 billion factory project that will take at least four years to yield effective production capacity [13][14] Group 3: China's Competitive Advantage - China's transformer exports reached 29.71 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a 51.42% year-on-year increase, with exports to the EU soaring by 138% [16][18] - China dominates the production of oriented silicon steel, which constitutes 60% of the global market, allowing it to maintain a complete supply chain and reduce dependency on external suppliers [18][20] - Chinese suppliers can deliver transformers in 10-12 months, significantly faster than the 18 months typical for Western companies, making them attractive to countries in urgent need [20][22] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The price of Chinese transformers is 20%-30% lower than comparable Western products, providing a competitive edge in international bidding [22][30] - Chinese transformers are increasingly capable of meeting advanced requirements, such as smart diagnostics and energy management, with over 70% of exports in 2025 expected to meet high energy efficiency standards [24][30] - Leading Chinese companies like TBEA and Baobian Electric are expanding their global footprint, with TBEA operating 24 manufacturing bases across over 90 countries [26][28] Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for transformers is expected to grow as AI, renewable energy, and robotics industries develop, solidifying China's role in the global energy transition [31][43] - Musk's vision connects AI, robotics, and renewable energy, emphasizing the essential role of transformers in supporting these technologies [31][35] - China's advancements in manufacturing and technology position it as a key player in the global energy transformation, moving beyond low-cost production to become a respected leader in the industry [41][43]