特朗普关税政策岌岌可危？美国高院多数大法官齐声质疑

Core Points - The fate of Trump's tariff policy is uncertain as the U.S. Supreme Court hears a case that could overturn it, potentially leading to over $100 billion in tariff refunds [2][4] - The atmosphere in the Supreme Court was tense, with several justices expressing doubts about the legality of Trump's tariffs, questioning whether such powers should rest with Congress [4][5] - The probability of the Supreme Court supporting Trump's tariffs has significantly decreased, dropping from 40% to around 20% [4] Tariff Policy - The Supreme Court's decision will determine the future of Trump's tariffs, which he has claimed are essential for national security [5] - The Senate previously voted to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, indicating a shift in legislative support [4] Government Shutdown - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 37 days, marking the longest in history, which has exacerbated economic uncertainties [6][8] - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions in transportation, affecting thousands of flights and millions of travelers [6][7] - Essential programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program have halted, impacting 42 million Americans [7] Economic Impact - The prolonged government shutdown is causing employers to delay investments and hiring, with potential large-scale layoffs [8][9] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown lasts six weeks, economic losses could reach $11 billion, with GDP growth potentially declining by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 [9]