中金：预计2026年家电整体内销增速或为前低后高 海外市场仍是最大增量

Core Insights - The impact of the national subsidy reduction on domestic sales of core home appliance categories is limited in both time and magnitude, with leading companies performing better than industry shipment trends [1][3] - The overall domestic sales growth rate for home appliances is expected to be low initially and then increase towards 2026, indicating a recovery trend [1][3] - Long-term growth in the home appliance sector is anticipated to come from overseas markets, despite short-term disruptions from tariffs and inventory cycles [1][3] Group 1: Home Appliance Dividend Assets - Home appliance dividend assets, represented by leading white goods companies, offer high dividend yields and have room for improvement in cash dividends and share buybacks [2] - The recognition of the dividend attributes of white goods assets by medium to long-term funds is crucial for the valuation uplift of leading home appliance companies [2] - The governance and operational efficiency of leading home appliance companies provide them with potential for valuation expansion in the medium to long term [2] Group 2: Growth Dynamics Post-Subsidy Era - The home appliance industry is entering a post-subsidy era, with domestic sales expected to stabilize regardless of whether national subsidies continue [3] - The emergence of "industry catfish" is accelerating innovation and organizational changes among leading companies, reinforcing their competitive advantages [3] - Chinese home appliance brands are expected to continue gaining market share globally, with an increasing focus on localized operations [3] Group 3: Emerging Growth Categories - The penetration of AI and robotics is giving rise to new technology-driven consumer categories, with domestic brands rapidly emerging in these segments [4] - Chinese companies are achieving global leadership in niche categories such as robotic vacuum cleaners and action cameras, often positioning themselves in the high-end market [4] - Continuous product innovation and effective supply chain management are enabling Chinese firms to surpass overseas leaders in certain segments [4]