摊牌了！美国38万亿债务爆雷，美联储政策180度大转弯，中国坐收渔利

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surged to an unprecedented $38 trillion, raising concerns about economic stability and fiscal responsibility, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and halt balance sheet reduction efforts [1][5][14]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in two months reflects a shift in economic risk balance, prioritizing survival over previous commitments [1][6]. - The U.S. national debt now exceeds 126.8% of GDP, surpassing the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) safety threshold of 100% [5][6]. - The annual interest payment on the debt has exceeded $1 trillion, contributing to a cycle of increasing debt as interest payments themselves become new debt [6][14]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The issuance of 10-year Treasury bonds has seen a significant drop in demand, indicating a lack of confidence from foreign investors in U.S. long-term debt [7][8]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined from 109 to 98, reflecting global investor sentiment regarding U.S. fiscal policies [8][12]. Group 3: International Implications - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds while increasing its gold reserves, indicating a strategy of risk hedging amidst U.S. fiscal instability [9][11]. - Other countries, including Japan and the UK, are also reassessing their investments in U.S. debt, highlighting a broader trend of diminishing trust in U.S. fiscal management [12][16]. Group 4: Structural Issues - The interplay between fiscal and monetary policy has created a vicious cycle of debt accumulation, where tax cuts lead to deficits, which in turn necessitate more borrowing and monetary easing [14][16]. - The current situation is likened to a "sandcastle" built on unstable foundations, suggesting that reliance on debt and money printing is unsustainable [16][17].