中金：北美CSP资本开支继续上调 AI需求持续超出供给

Core Insights - North America's top four cloud service providers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) reported a combined capital expenditure of $113.318 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18% [1] - The companies have raised their full-year guidance and remain optimistic about AI investments for 2026, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [2][3] Capital Expenditure Adjustments - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance from $80 billion to $91-93 billion; Meta increased its guidance to $70-72 billion from a previous $66-72 billion; Microsoft indicated that its capital expenditure growth rate for FY2026 will exceed that of FY2025; Amazon raised its 2025 capital expenditure to $125 billion with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [2] - The total capital expenditure for the North American top four cloud providers is expected to reach $384.5 billion and $499.8 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 54.8% and 30.0% [2] AI Demand and Business Empowerment - There is a persistent demand for AI that exceeds supply, with Microsoft noting capacity constraints in its Azure cloud services; Meta facing computational limitations in its advertising recommendation system; Google experiencing a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in unmet contract obligations; and Amazon's self-developed chip Trainium2 being fully booked [3] - AI has become a core driver for revenue growth in Microsoft Azure (YoY +40%), Google Cloud (YoY +34%), and Amazon AWS (YoY +20%+) [3] - AI-driven tools have significantly impacted core business revenues, with Meta's AI-driven advertising tools generating over $60 billion in annual revenue and Google's search business queries doubling in Q3, exceeding market expectations [3] Investment Recommendations - Relevant investment targets include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), Yuanjie Technology (688498), Broadcom (AVGO), Ruijie Networks (301165), Guangxun Technology (002281), Arista (ANET), Celestica, Xinyi Sheng (300502), Shijia Photon (688313), Lumentum (LITE), and Huagong Technology (000988) [4]