美元空头公然对抗美联储 看跌预期根深蒂固

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar in the coming months, with traders expected to maintain net short positions on the dollar throughout November [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - A recent Reuters survey indicated that 30 out of 45 strategists (two-thirds) expect traders to maintain net short positions on the dollar by the end of November, although the degree of short positioning is anticipated to be less extreme than in previous observations [1]. - According to Jayati Bharadwaj from TD Securities, the current dollar positioning is only moderately bearish and is gradually approaching neutral levels, contrasting with previous extremes [2]. - The probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is currently estimated at around 70%, down from nearly 90% prior to the last policy meeting, which has cooled the enthusiasm for "selling the dollar" but has not changed overall market expectations [2]. Group 2: Currency Forecasts - Strategists predict that the euro will appreciate against the dollar, with expectations of a slight increase to 1.18 in three months and reaching 1.20 in six months, while the one-year forecast remains stable at 1.21 [2]. - Approximately 53% of respondents in a recent survey believe that the dollar's year-end closing price is more likely to be below their predicted value, indicating a cautious outlook [3]. Group 3: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed official, noted that political influence on the Federal Reserve is expected to increase, particularly as the current administration gains more voting power on the Fed's board over time [3]. - The current administration's strong approach in exercising this control is a core reason for the prediction of lower policy rates and a depreciating dollar [4].