Ge Long Hui·2025-11-06 07:48Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, has faced significant challenges since 2025, with stock prices underperforming major indices due to slow recovery in domestic consumption and tightening of banquet-related policies. The industry is expected to reach a fundamental bottom in the second half of 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [1][2][6]. Baijiu Industry Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, the CITIC Baijiu Index has decreased by 4.6%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 22.5 percentage points and 30.9 percentage points, respectively. Only Zhenjiu Lidu has seen a positive increase of 32% [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 78.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%. Excluding Moutai, the revenue drop was 31.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.1 billion yuan, down 22.1%, and a 47.7% decline when excluding Moutai [2][3]. Future Outlook for Baijiu - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to be the bottom for the baijiu industry's fundamentals, characterized by the weakest sales, lowest prices, and most pessimistic market expectations. A recovery in sales, prices, and expectations is expected in early to mid-2026, with a potential stabilization in company performance by Q2 2026 [3][6]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the baijiu sector is approximately 20x, reflecting a long-term bottom and significant pessimism in market expectations. Leading companies have been increasing shareholder returns, with dividend rates generally above 65% [3][4]. Beer Industry Outlook - The beer industry is undergoing a transition from price to quality, facing challenges such as fragmented consumer demand and channel changes. The revenue and profit for the beer sector are expected to remain flat or slightly decline in 2026 due to these factors and weak recovery in consumption [4][7]. - Companies that effectively respond to industry trends and manage their channels are likely to strengthen their market positions despite the anticipated cost increases in the coming year [4][7].