增税与降息预期压顶，英镑看跌情绪创今年1月以来之最

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the British pound has turned increasingly negative, with expectations of tax increases and interest rate cuts contributing to this outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Currency Performance - The British pound has fallen to its lowest point in months, with traders concerned about the upcoming budget's limited positive impact on economic growth [1]. - The options market indicates that bearish sentiment towards the pound has reached its highest level since January, reflecting uncertainty in fiscal and monetary policies [1]. - The likelihood of the Bank of England cutting interest rates this month is estimated at around 33%, a significant increase from nearly zero just weeks ago [1]. - The pound has depreciated against the US dollar, reaching approximately 1.305, and has also hit its lowest level against the euro in 2023 [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications and Forecasts - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, has laid the groundwork for tax increases, indicating the need for "difficult choices" to maintain fiscal stability [1]. - Analysts express concerns that fiscal tightening could negatively impact economic growth and confidence, with predictions that the euro may rise to 0.9 pounds in the coming weeks [2]. - The one-month options risk reversal indicator for the pound has dropped to -1.21 percentage points, the lowest since January, indicating increased costs for put options compared to call options [2]. Group 3: Volatility and Future Outlook - Despite the low market sentiment, implied volatility for options remains subdued, with a recent peak of 7.2%, significantly lower than levels seen during previous market crises [3]. - Analysts suggest that the gradual announcement of budget plans by UK officials may reduce market volatility, leading to cautious investor behavior [3]. - If the budget's austerity measures are less severe than expected, there could be potential for the pound to strengthen in the long term, contingent on the credibility of the proposed tax measures [3].