背靠母企勇闯港交所，TOP TOY“独立行走”尚待时日

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of the trendy toy sector, driven by the consumption power of Generation Z and the evolving consumption structure, with TOP TOY emerging as a significant player in this market [1][2]. Company Overview - TOP TOY, established in 2020 and incubated by Miniso, focuses on selling licensed IP toys, proprietary IP toys, and third-party brand toys, covering various categories such as blind boxes, building blocks, figurines, and dolls [2]. - The company has shown impressive financial performance, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB in 2022 to 1.909 billion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [2]. - TOP TOY achieved a net profit of 212 million RMB in 2023, further increasing to 293 million RMB in 2024, indicating a successful turnaround from previous losses [2]. Market Position - By 2024, TOP TOY captured a market share of 2.2%, positioning itself as a notable player in the trendy toy industry, although still significantly behind competitors like Pop Mart and LEGO [3]. - Despite its growth, TOP TOY's profitability remains low compared to Pop Mart, with a net profit of 294 million RMB in 2024, which is less than one-tenth of Pop Mart's earnings [3]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's gross margin improved from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, although it slightly decreased to 32.4% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company faces challenges with rising sales and distribution expenses, which increased by 102.4% in the first half of 2025, outpacing revenue growth of 58.5% [3]. Cash Flow Analysis - The company maintains positive operating cash flow, but its investment and financing cash flows are negative due to store expansion and debt repayments, indicating a reliance on external financing [4]. IP and Product Strategy - TOP TOY's IP strategy relies heavily on licensed IPs, with 43 licensed IPs contributing 889 million RMB in revenue in 2024, while its proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB [5][6]. - The company faces risks associated with its dependence on licensed IPs, as the expiration of key licenses could impact product supply and profitability [6]. Channel Strategy - TOP TOY's distribution strategy is primarily based on a franchise and distribution model, with a significant portion of revenue coming from offline distributors [8]. - The company has 293 stores, with a notable reliance on Miniso for channel support, which could limit its long-term growth potential if Miniso alters its partnership terms [9]. Long-term Outlook - While TOP TOY has demonstrated strong growth and potential in the trendy toy market, structural issues such as IP dependency and channel reliance pose significant challenges to its independent growth [10]. - The company's long-term valuation will depend on its ability to enhance its IP autonomy, reduce channel dependency, and optimize its financial structure, alongside the overall growth trends in the trendy toy industry [10].