国产算力反弹，能否梅开二度？——科创芯片ETF大涨点评

Market Performance - The market showed a strong upward trend with a total trading volume of 2.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.84% [1] - The computing power sector rebounded, with domestic computing power showing stronger performance. The Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF rose by 4.73%, the Integrated Circuit ETF increased by 3.82%, the Chip ETF gained 3.71%, and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF rose by 3.48% [1][2] Factors Driving the Increase - Negative sentiment has partially dissipated. Following the National Day holiday, TSMC's CoWoS capacity adjustment and strong overseas computing power contributed to market recovery. Despite optimistic capital expenditure statements from cloud companies, the market's expectations were not fully met, leading to a noticeable recent pullback. The computing power sector rebounded as value became more apparent during this pullback [3] - Continuous price increases in storage products are driven by AI demand, leading to a supply-demand mismatch. The shift of major overseas manufacturers towards DDR5 and HBM has caused a rapid exit of DDR4 capacity, resulting in price hikes. The tightness in related capacities is expected to persist and may worsen through 2026. According to CFM, prices for storage products in servers, mobile devices, and PCs are expected to continue rising in Q4 [3][4] - On the news front, the launch of the world's first single-cabinet 640-card super node scaleX640 by Inspur on November 6 during the World Internet Conference indicates advancements in high-bandwidth, low-latency communication technology [3] Future Outlook - There remains growth potential in both domestic and overseas capital expenditures, with no immediate concerns regarding capital spending. Recent financial reports indicate that cloud companies maintain an optimistic outlook on capital expenditures. For instance, Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast from $80 billion to $91-93 billion, while Meta increased its forecast to $70-72 billion [6] - The demand for AI and related technologies is on the rise, with major cloud companies showing strong cash flow growth driven by AI. Except for Amazon, the other three major companies have capital expenditures in 2025 that account for less than 75% of their operating cash flow, indicating robust financial health [6] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider both North American and domestic computing power sectors for potential investments. The overall pace of AI development is accelerating, with improving fundamentals and no immediate tariff risks. However, market volatility may persist due to increased profit-taking, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [7] - For overseas computing power, it is recommended to focus on communication ETFs with high core content, while for domestic computing power, the Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF is expected to benefit from the release of domestic GPUs and rising storage prices. The Semiconductor Equipment ETF is also highlighted for its improved fundamentals due to advanced process expansion and storage capacity increases [7]