Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and the fifth since September 2024, indicating the start of a monetary easing cycle in the U.S. [1] - The labor market has shown signs of slowing down, with rising unemployment rates, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts this year to prevent further deterioration in the job market [3] - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue rate cuts in December, with some officials advocating for a wait-and-see approach to observe a complete economic cycle before making further decisions [3] Group 2 - The stock market has shown a clear upward structure without signs of a major top, as the market breadth has not exhibited significant divergence, and trading volumes have remained stable [4] - Historical patterns indicate that small-cap and micro-cap stocks typically show weakness before a market bubble peaks, but current observations do not suggest significant deterioration in these stocks [4] - The current stock market valuation may be approaching high levels, but the formation of a valuation bubble is expected to take time, and there are no clear signals of a major market top [4] Group 3 - A potential 5% pullback in the stock market could attract significant buying interest, leading to new historical highs shortly after [4] - In the event of extreme market conditions, such as a major internal collapse or a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, there could be a risk of an 8% or more deep correction, making it difficult for indices to quickly reach new highs [5] - Technically, the Nasdaq is in a clear upward trend, with recent breakthroughs above 25,000 and 26,000, and the focus remains on whether prices can pull back to the 25,250 to 25,400 range for buying opportunities [5]
【百利好指数专题】货币宽松开启 股指还有新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-06 09:55