大外交｜停购俄油、眼盯中美，印度在大国雄心与地缘现实中求解

Group 1 - Russia's crude oil exports to India have significantly decreased to an average of 1.19 million barrels per day from 1.95 million barrels per day in the previous two weeks, indicating India's response to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy [1] - Indian refiners are adjusting operations in light of U.S. sanctions, with Reliance Industries halting purchases of Russian oil and state-owned companies reviewing trade documents to ensure compliance [2][3] - The shift in India's oil imports is notable, with Russian oil now accounting for approximately 35% of India's total crude imports, up from less than 3% previously [3] Group 2 - The U.S. has intensified pressure on India regarding its energy trade with Russia, including the withdrawal of sanctions waivers for the Chabahar port project, which is crucial for India's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia [4] - Despite the pressure, the U.S. has also moved towards a significant defense cooperation agreement with India, indicating a complex balancing act in U.S.-India relations [5] - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on Indian goods, including a 50% tariff rate, which has led to tensions in trade relations, with India criticizing these measures as unfair [6] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with concerns in India about being sidelined in the emerging U.S.-China dynamics, particularly after the recent G2 discussions between the U.S. and China [7][8] - India's strategic positioning is challenged by the perception of being marginalized in the global power structure, leading to increased anxiety within its strategic community [7] - The evolving U.S. strategy appears to focus on preventing the rise of another competitor, which complicates India's aspirations for a more prominent role in global affairs [8] Group 4 - Recent improvements in Sino-Indian relations are noted, with high-level visits and resumed dialogues, suggesting a cautious approach to balancing relationships with both the U.S. and China [10][11] - The economic ties between China and India remain strong, with China being India's largest trading partner, indicating a complex interdependence despite geopolitical tensions [11] - The path to a harmonious relationship between India and China is expected to be gradual, requiring adjustments in India's strategic mindset towards its position relative to both China and the U.S. [12]