拜登预言成真，让特朗普干完这四年，美国将会成为“世界老二”？

Economic Impact - The Trump administration's tariffs generated an additional $118 billion in revenue and reduced the fiscal deficit by $41 billion, but the overall economic outlook for the U.S. is deteriorating while China's economy is steadily improving [2][4] - The trade war initiated in April 2018 led to chaos in global supply chains, with companies like Apple reporting a 12% increase in supply chain costs, which were passed on to consumers, resulting in an increase of over $3,000 in annual expenses for an average American household [5][6] Inflation and Employment - As of October 2023, inflation remains high at around 3.5%, with the Federal Reserve assessing a 45% chance of economic recession, while JPMorgan predicts a recession probability exceeding 50% [6][8] - The U.S. added 20% fewer jobs than expected in the first half of the year, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.8%, and projections suggest it could reach 5.3% by year-end [8] Geopolitical Influence - The "America First" policy has diminished U.S. diplomatic credibility, leading to a perception of the U.S. as a "troublemaker" among traditional allies, and has resulted in a 10% increase in EU trade with China while trade with the U.S. decreased by 5% [10][11] - The shift towards "de-dollarization" is evident, with countries like Saudi Arabia considering transactions in yuan, indicating a decline in the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency [11][13] Societal and Political Dynamics - The internal division within the U.S. is exacerbated by a lack of trust in institutions, with rising social tensions and a perception of a "trust deficit" affecting economic foundations [13][15] - The spread of misinformation has led to a disconnect between public perception and economic reality, with 40% of respondents believing the economy is improving despite declining GDP growth and rising unemployment [18][20] Future Projections - The OECD predicts that by 2028, China's GDP may surpass that of the U.S., while the World Economic Forum forecasts a decline in the U.S. share of global GDP from 23% to 20% by 2029, supporting the notion of the U.S. becoming the "world's second" economy [20][22]