每日机构分析：11月6日

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - UBS suggests that if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariff policy illegal, it could force the government to refund approximately $140 billion in taxes, which is 7.9% of the projected federal budget deficit for FY2025. This could lead to a structural low-tariff trade environment, enhancing household purchasing power and easing inflationary pressures, thus providing the Federal Reserve with more room for rate cuts [1] - Barclays indicates that if repo rates remain above the effective federal funds rate target range for several weeks, the Federal Reserve may need to intervene by increasing reserves through more repo lending or direct purchases of Treasury securities [2] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on US Treasuries, highlighting that the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could significantly impact market volatility and the yield curve [2] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Danske Bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, with a close vote of 5-4. The cooling labor market is noted, but not at a concerning pace. Key votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor will be crucial [3] - Analysts from London Capital Group expect the Bank of England to keep the base rate at 4.0% pending details from the upcoming budget announcement, as uncertainty in new policy measures is suppressing economic activity [4] - Berenberg economists predict that potential tax increases in the UK budget could pave the way for further rate cuts next year, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points to 3.50% anticipated if fiscal tightening is implemented [4] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone retail sales for September fell short of expectations, primarily due to a 0.2% decline in non-food sales, while food sales remained stable. This lagging data is not expected to influence the European Central Bank's policy outlook [5]