达利欧：美联储结束QT=在泡沫中刺激经济，美国“大债务周期”已进入最危险阶段！

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) may be adding fuel to an already inflated bubble, rather than stimulating a depressed economy [1] Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The Fed's current easing policy is being implemented at a time of high asset valuations and relatively strong economic conditions, which Dalio describes as "stimulus into a bubble" [1] - The U.S. is in a dangerous phase of the "big debt cycle," characterized by a situation where the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds exceeds demand, leading the Fed to print money to purchase bonds [1][6] - Current asset valuations are high, with the S&P 500 earnings yield at 4.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 4%, indicating a low equity risk premium of about 0.3% [4] Group 2: Quantitative Easing (QE) Mechanism - Dalio explains that all financial flows and market volatility are driven by relative attractiveness rather than absolute attractiveness, with investors choosing assets based on expected total returns [2] - The implementation of QE typically creates liquidity and lowers real interest rates, which can inflate asset prices and widen the wealth gap between asset holders and non-holders [2] Group 3: Historical Context of QE - Historically, QE has been deployed during economic downturns, characterized by falling asset valuations, economic contraction, and low inflation, contrasting sharply with the current high asset valuations and strong economic growth [4][5] - Current inflation is slightly above target at around 3%, with credit and liquidity conditions being robust, leading to a low credit spread [5] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Dalio warns that the current policy environment appears more dangerous and inflationary, with potential for a "liquidity melt-up" similar to the pre-burst of the 1999 internet bubble [7] - The combination of fiscal deficit expansion, renewed monetary easing, and regulatory relaxation is creating a "super-easy" environment that may lead to faster bubble inflation and deeper risk accumulation [7] - Long-duration assets, particularly in technology and AI, along with inflation-hedging assets like gold, are expected to benefit from the current liquidity environment, but risks may escalate if inflation concerns resurface [7]