美股年底涨势无忧？散户大军有望继续“添柴加火”

Group 1 - The report led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou indicates that stock fund inflows tend to be higher in December and the following first quarter during non-U.S. election years, based on a study of seasonal patterns over the past decade [1] - The S&P 500 index has recently achieved a six-month consecutive increase, the longest streak since August 2021, with a nearly 6% rise in September and October, driven by a surge in large tech stocks due to the AI growth trend [4] - Retail investors have shown strong buying momentum in stocks over the past two months, which is expected to continue into early 2026, as indicated by significant inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [4] Group 2 - Retail demand for stocks is reflected in the inflows into ETFs, with stock ETFs seeing monthly inflows of $160 billion over the past two months, marking the strongest buying pace since the U.S. elections in November/December 2024 [4] - Recent global stock market gains have faced challenges due to concerns over high valuations in the tech sector, leading some investors to take profits, alongside negative impacts from potential U.S. government shutdowns and conflicting statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Richard Privorotsky from Goldman Sachs suggests that any market pullback is unlikely to last long, emphasizing that the stock market will be a target for buying on dips due to factors like fiscal expansion, corporate earnings, and money supply [5]