今年营收目标能否完成？贵州茅台管理层：终端动销环比已改善

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's management addressed investor concerns regarding the completion of annual performance targets, core product sales, and market capitalization management after reporting the slowest quarterly growth in recent years [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, Guizhou Moutai achieved record high revenues and net profits, but the growth rate was the lowest since 2015. Q3 revenue was 39.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.35%, while net profit was 19.224 billion yuan, up just 0.48% [1][3]. - To meet the 2025 revenue growth target of approximately 9%, Q4 revenue growth must be no less than 15%, which is challenging given the current deep adjustment in the liquor industry [1][3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with channel inventory under pressure and a significant slowdown in growth. The industry has entered a phase of stock competition, facing issues such as changing consumer habits and mismatched business models [1][3]. Management Response - The management expressed commitment to achieving performance targets, emphasizing a market-driven approach while maintaining channel resilience and market stability [3]. - Despite the lack of growth in Q3, there has been an improvement in terminal sales since August, with Q3 revenue showing a year-on-year increase of 7.26% [3]. Inventory Levels - The management indicated that the channel inventory levels for Moutai products are currently healthy, with a good balance in the sales-to-inventory ratio for both Moutai and series liquor products [4]. Shareholder Returns - Guizhou Moutai announced a share buyback plan of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan and a mid-term dividend plan of 30 billion yuan, with total dividends for 2025 potentially reaching 64.671 billion yuan, aligning closely with net profits for the first three quarters [4]. - The company has established a multi-dimensional market capitalization management system, focusing on dividends, buybacks, and shareholding increases to continuously reward shareholders [4].