美联储今年票委“放鹰”：通胀数据断供，降息需更谨慎！

Core Insights - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns about the lack of inflation data during the government shutdown, which may hinder the ability to assess price trends accurately [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is projected to rise slightly to 4.4% in October, marking a potential four-year high, due to a decrease in employment rates among the unemployed and an increase in layoffs [1][2] - Goolsbee noted that while the unemployment and layoff rates are objectively low, there are signs of a slight cooling in the labor market, indicating a gradual rather than sharp slowdown [2] Inflation Concerns - The September inflation rate remains high at 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, raising concerns among officials about the timeline for inflation returning to target levels [2] - Core service inflation has increased, with core service prices rising 3.5% year-over-year in September, indicating persistent price pressures even in sectors not directly affected by tariffs [2] Interest Rate Outlook - Goolsbee does not hold a hawkish view on interest rates in the medium term, suggesting that the "stable point" for rates may be significantly lower than current levels, indicating a potential for future rate decreases [2]