“牛肉通胀”席卷美国

Core Insights - The rising cost of beef in the U.S. is attributed to high livestock rearing costs, tariff pressures, and a significant shortage of cattle, leading to record-high prices for consumers [1][3][5] Price Trends - U.S. beef prices have seen substantial increases, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reporting year-over-year rises of 18.4% for roasts and 16.6% for steaks [2] - Since 2020, overall beef prices in the U.S. have surged over 50%, significantly outpacing increases in other food prices [2] - Retail prices for ground beef have reached a historic high of $6.1 per pound, with anecdotal evidence of prices rising from $6.99 to $9.99 per pound within a month [2] Supply Issues - A critical factor behind the price surge is a severe shortage of cattle, with total U.S. cattle inventory dropping to 94.2 million head, the lowest since 1973 [3] - High feed costs and prolonged drought conditions have forced ranchers to reduce herd sizes, exacerbating supply constraints [3] - The number of cattle entering feedlots has also hit a seven-year low, further tightening market supply [3] External Factors - The emergence of a parasite in Mexico has added pressure to U.S. beef supplies, leading to import suspensions from Mexico due to disease concerns [4] - Tariff policies from the Trump administration have imposed a 10% tariff on beef imports from countries like Australia and New Zealand, with potential tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian beef, contributing to higher domestic prices [5][6] Market Outlook - Experts predict that beef prices are unlikely to decrease significantly in the short term, with strong consumer demand persisting despite high prices [7] - The recovery of cattle herds is expected to take at least two years, meaning high beef prices may continue into 2026 [8] - The U.S. beef industry is primarily focused on producing high-fat, marbled steaks, making it challenging to replace imports with alternative lean beef sources [8]