来势迅猛，安世启动二次反制！荷兰断供，中方对阵欧盟27国

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between ASML and its Chinese subsidiary highlights the fragility of global supply chains and the unintended consequences of political maneuvers in the semiconductor industry [1][3][10] Group 1: Supply Chain Disruption - ASML's temporary CEO announced a halt in wafer supply due to alleged payment defaults by the Dongguan factory, which ASML China refuted, claiming ASML owed 1 billion yuan [1][5] - The Dutch government's takeover aimed to sever Chinese control over ASML but resulted in a significant disruption, as 70% of ASML's end production capacity is concentrated in the Dongguan facility, leading to panic among European automakers [3][5] - Major European car manufacturers like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz rushed to stockpile chips, causing a 20% short-term price increase, while Dutch wafer factories faced inventory pile-up due to halted production [3][5] Group 2: Political and Economic Repercussions - The Dutch government's actions have been criticized for prioritizing political motives over market logic, with the German media noting that the automotive industry is facing real costs due to these decisions [5][7] - In response to the supply halt, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce implemented export controls on ASML's automotive chips, while allowing for flexible exemptions for affected companies, leading to a split in the European automotive sector [5][7] - ASML China indicated that its existing inventory could meet customer demands until the end of the year, and domestic wafer manufacturers are stepping in to fill the gap, accelerating the shift towards local alternatives [5][8] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The incident underscores the complexities of global supply chains, with ASML's model relying on a "Dutch wafer - Chinese packaging - global sales" approach, making the packaging stage a critical point of control [10] - The situation has prompted discussions about the sustainability of political interventions in market operations, with warnings from the German business community about the costs of such political maneuvers [10] - The broader implications of this conflict raise questions about the future of globalization and whether nations can maintain efficiency in supply chains while pursuing absolute autonomy [10]