美联储12月降息有多悬？今年票委因政府关门不敢行动，明年票委更担心通胀

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are increasingly divided on whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, with concerns about inflation and data gaps due to the government shutdown being central to the debate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Divergence Among Federal Reserve Officials - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expresses caution regarding further rate cuts due to missing inflation data caused by the government shutdown, suggesting a more careful approach [1][3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argues that inflation is a more pressing concern than a weak labor market, advocating for continued pressure on inflation through monetary policy [1][4]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicates that the low interest rate environment persists, estimating the neutral interest rate around 1%, and emphasizes the importance of current data over model estimates [2][6]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee highlights that core inflation, excluding food and energy, has risen by 3.6% year-over-year, which is significantly above the Fed's 2% target, raising concerns about premature rate cuts [3]. - Hammack predicts that inflation may not reach the Fed's 2% target until 2026 or later, suggesting that the Fed may struggle to achieve its price stability goals for much of the next decade [4]. - The economic landscape is described as a "two-speed economy," with significant disparities in performance between wealthier households and others, complicating the Fed's approach to maintaining a robust job market [7]. Group 3: Recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Decisions - The FOMC's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points has revealed rare internal divisions, with two members voting against the decision, indicating differing views on the appropriate monetary policy direction [5][8]. - Some officials, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, express a preference for maintaining current rates unless clear evidence shows inflation decreasing faster than expected [8][9]. - The ongoing government shutdown and lack of official data are leading some officials to rely more on anecdotal evidence from businesses regarding rising costs and inflationary pressures [5][8].