经济企稳回升支撑A股中长期向上

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese stock market has shown resilience and independent growth amidst global market adjustments, reflecting a recovery in the Chinese economy and advancements in new productivity driven by AI and robotics [2] - The macroeconomic environment in China is stabilizing, with reduced drag from the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline in investment, dropping from approximately 25% of fixed assets in 2019 to around 14% in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Consumer spending is stabilizing, with notable growth in sectors benefiting from government subsidies, indicating an improvement in consumer sentiment [3] Group 2 - Leading indicators suggest that the economic cycle is in the final stage of preparing for a rebound, with improvements in M1 money supply indicating better expectations in the real economy [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show further recovery in the coming quarters, which historically aligns with economic cycles, suggesting a potential rebound in the economy [4][5] - Compared to other major economies, China's economic recovery is ahead, with signs of a decoupling from the U.S. economic cycle, which is currently facing recessionary pressures [5] Group 3 - The performance of equity assets is closely tied to economic conditions, with expectations of strong stock performance in the upcoming year as the economic cycle is anticipated to recover [6] - Investor risk appetite is expected to remain high, correlating with the anticipated recovery in the economic cycle, which supports a positive outlook for stock performance [6]