贝莱德：2025年第四季度全球投资展望报告

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The global financial markets are experiencing a complex and volatile landscape, with diverse asset performances and intertwining disruptive trends and macro risks [1][2] - Following the market turmoil in April 2025, global stock markets rebounded, with notable recoveries in the US, China, and Japan, driven primarily by strong earnings in AI-related sectors [1][2] - The US stock market's performance is particularly strong, supported by the technology and communication sectors, with the "Tech Seven" companies being key drivers of returns [1][2] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is under significant pressure, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets rising to multi-decade highs due to concerns over government debt [2][11] - Even with the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts, the US yield curve remains steep, indicating a shift in market focus towards inflation control and government debt management [2][11] Group 3: Economic Insights - The global economy is undergoing a transformation, with the US economy showing steady growth despite a slowdown in consumer spending, supported by investments in AI infrastructure [2][19] - Inflation remains complex, with overall inflation decreasing while commodity inflation has rebounded significantly, particularly in the context of tariffs affecting imported goods [23][25] Group 4: Investment Strategies - BlackRock emphasizes three core investment themes: focusing on current certainties, strategically managing macro risks, and anchoring investments in disruptive trends like AI [3][18] - Tactical asset allocation favors US and Japanese equities, while strategic views are positive on emerging market stocks, infrastructure stocks, and private credit [3][54] - The role of private markets is increasingly significant, with more companies relying on private market financing, highlighting the growing interest in private credit and equity [3][54] Group 5: Sector Performance - The performance of different stock markets varies, with returns in the US driven largely by earnings growth rather than valuation increases, contrasting with markets outside the US where returns are more valuation-driven [37][39] - The AI trend is expected to continue driving corporate earnings growth, which is seen as a key factor for future stock market performance [39][21]