美国10月小非农超预期反弹，业界预计12月或继续降息

Group 1 - The ADP employment data for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, the largest gain since July 2025, exceeding the market expectation of 28,000 jobs [1][2] - The report alleviates concerns from the Federal Reserve regarding labor market deterioration and reverses a two-month decline in employment figures [2] - Job growth is concentrated in labor-intensive sectors such as trade, transportation, public utilities, and education and health services, while knowledge-intensive sectors like information services and professional services are experiencing contractions [2][3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector has seen job losses due to economic slowdown and high inventory levels in industries like consumer electronics and automotive, leading to production cuts and layoffs [3] - Despite the positive private sector job growth, the overall hiring scale remains "moderate," with small and medium-sized enterprises, which contribute 75% of U.S. jobs, experiencing a six-month decline in employment [3][4] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI reached a new eight-month high of 52.4 in October, indicating better-than-expected performance in the services sector [3][4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue interest rate cuts in December, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut, as the focus on employment outweighs inflation concerns [4] - The potential for inflation to rise due to tariffs remains a concern, but the current economic risks are perceived to be greater than inflationary pressures [4]