供应端压力显著 PVC向下测试支撑

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is currently facing significant pressure due to high social inventory and weak demand, leading to a potential test of historical low price support levels [1] Group 1: Social Inventory - PVC social inventory remains high, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.5% to 1.03 million tons by the end of October, but a year-on-year increase of 25.09% [3] - The East China region holds 0.9716 million tons of inventory, down 0.57% month-on-month but up 25.95% year-on-year, while South China shows an increase of 0.54% month-on-month to 0.0584 million tons, with a year-on-year rise of 12.30% [3] - High inventory levels are a key factor suppressing PVC prices, with the accumulation occurring even during the traditional consumption peak season [2][5] Group 2: Demand Side - The real estate sector, a major downstream market for PVC, remains sluggish, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, completion, and sales areas [4] - Although there has been a slight increase in operating rates for pipe and profile manufacturers due to promotions, the overall demand growth potential is limited, failing to provide effective support for PVC prices [4] - Despite challenges, PVC exports have surged, with a cumulative export volume of 3.3941 million tons from January to September, marking a year-on-year increase of 47.78% [4] Group 3: Production and Pricing - Domestic PVC production remains high, with an operating load of 78.26% as of October 31, consistent with levels from 2023 and 2024 [2] - The unit loss for calcium carbide-based PVC producers has reached 770 yuan per ton, while ethylene-based PVC losses have narrowed to approximately 475 yuan per ton [2] - The overall weak market for PVC is expected to persist, with supply pressures and high social inventory continuing to dominate, despite some cost support from stable calcium carbide prices [5]