预期提振 国内外豆价联动上涨

Group 1 - The domestic and international soybean markets have shown significant upward momentum since October 15, driven by expectations of Chinese trade procurement, with U.S. Chicago CBOT soybean prices reaching a 15-month high, surpassing 1100 cents per bushel [1] - The increase in soybean meal prices is attributed to rising import costs and the recovery of domestic oil mill margins, leading to accelerated procurement of forward soybeans [1] - As of November 4, the procurement completion rate for December shipment soybeans was 38.1%, with 40% being U.S. soybeans and 60% Brazilian soybeans, while the January shipment procurement rate remains in single digits, primarily for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 2 - The current price structure in the domestic futures market shows a near strong and far weak trend, with U.S. soybean import tariffs remaining higher than those for Brazilian soybeans, making Brazilian soybeans more attractive for domestic commercial purchases [2] - Analysts expect U.S. soybean prices to remain strong with fluctuations, particularly with the upcoming USDA report on November 15, which is anticipated to lower U.S. soybean yield, total exports, and ending stock projections [2] - The domestic soybean meal market faces dual pressures, with high crushing volumes exceeding 9 million tons in November and ample spot supply, alongside hedging pressures from overseas procurement by oil mills [2] Group 3 - Soybean oil prices are less affected by trade policies and primarily follow the trends of the oilseed sector, with limited downside potential due to current low price levels [3] - Future soybean oil price movements will depend on factors such as China's imports of U.S. soybeans, reserve auction policies, and changes in Indonesian palm oil production and inventory [3]