“十五五”大气污染物进一步减排还有哪些潜力？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to enhance air quality and reduce PM2.5 concentrations significantly by 2027 and 2035, with stricter standards for air pollutant emissions during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Air Quality Improvement Goals - By 2027, the average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) nationwide is targeted to drop below 28 micrograms per cubic meter, with cities striving to meet this standard [1] - By 2035, the goal is to further reduce the PM2.5 concentration to below 25 micrograms per cubic meter [1] - As of 2024, approximately 25% of cities have not met the current air quality standards, with some cities exceeding 40 micrograms per cubic meter [1] Group 2: Energy Structure Adjustment - China is accelerating the construction of a new energy system, optimizing the integrated operation of "source-network-load-storage" [2] - The marginal cost of renewable energy generation is expected to decrease, supported by policy guidance, leading to a downward trend in electricity prices [2] - Improved electricity efficiency will support the transition from coal and oil to electricity in industrial and transportation sectors, significantly reducing air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions [2] Group 3: Industrial Structure Adjustment - Continuous improvement of laws, regulations, and standards will promote the upgrading of traditional industries [2] - Key industries such as thermal power, steel, and cement are gradually achieving ultra-low emissions, while deep governance in sectors like glass and waste treatment is progressing [2] - The comprehensive governance of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is being enhanced, with significant reductions in pollutant emissions expected [2] Group 4: Transportation Structure Adjustment - Mobile sources are becoming the primary contributors to urban air pollution, necessitating a shift towards electric vehicles [3] - As of June 2025, the number of electric vehicles is projected to reach 36.89 million, accounting for 10.27% of the total vehicle ownership [3] - A reduction in the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles from approximately 90% to below 70% could lead to significant decreases in PM2.5 concentrations [3] Group 5: Spatial Structure Adjustment - Adjusting spatial structures, including land use planning, is crucial for improving air quality [4] - Transitioning from a single-center development model to a multi-center and networked approach is essential for alleviating pollution in urban areas [4] - The government has outlined a clear implementation path for air quality improvement and the construction of a beautiful China [4]