Group 1: Market Trends - In October, rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed a trend of initially declining and then rebounding, driven by high inventory and weak demand in the first half, followed by macroeconomic improvements and inventory destocking in the latter half [1] - Looking ahead to November, demand may weaken marginally due to seasonal factors, but the extent is expected to be limited, with five major steel products likely to continue destocking [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the capacity replacement implementation measures, tightening the replacement ratio requirements, indicating that steel production capacity will face strict constraints in the medium to long term [2] - Daily molten iron output decreased from 2.4181 million tons at the beginning of October to 2.3636 million tons by the end of the month, with expectations of further declines in November due to demand expectations and profit conditions [2] Group 3: Export Performance - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative steel exports reached 98.6964 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%, with September exports at 11.9593 million tons [3] - The export willingness of steel mills has increased due to a lack of significant domestic demand growth, and it is expected that direct steel exports will remain at a high level in November and December [3] Group 4: Domestic Demand - Overall domestic demand remains stable, with real estate demand for steel continuing to be weak, but infrastructure steel demand may see some recovery towards the end of the year [4] - Manufacturing investment showed a year-on-year growth of 4% from January to September 2025, indicating resilience in the sector [4] Group 5: Inventory Dynamics - Steel prices rebounded in July and August due to policy support, leading to high inventory levels for rebar and hot-rolled coils, but inventory destocking has been slow in September and October [5] - The last two weeks of October saw a resumption of destocking for rebar, suggesting that inventory pressure may gradually ease in November [5] Group 6: Raw Material Support - Raw material prices are expected to remain strong in November, driven by downstream restocking expectations, with low coal and coke inventories and slow recovery in domestic supply [6] - Iron ore prices are supported by a high basis and global pricing dynamics, benefiting from overseas interest rate cuts and macroeconomic improvements [6] Group 7: Price Outlook - Short-term steel prices are expected to continue adjusting due to concerns over inventory and demand, but with rising exports, domestic policy expectations, and strong cost support, the downside for rebar and hot-rolled coil prices is limited, with a rebound anticipated in November [8]
成本支撑增强 沪钢后市有望反弹
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-11-07 00:19