棕榈油仍处下跌通道中

Core Viewpoint - The September supply and demand report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) presents a bearish outlook for palm oil, with production declining and inventory levels unexpectedly increasing, leading to a price correction in palm oil futures [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 0.73% month-on-month to 1.84 million tons due to rainy weather and holiday impacts [1]. - Exports increased by 7.69% month-on-month to 1.43 million tons, driven by Indonesia's tariff adjustments [1]. - Despite the increase in exports, domestic biodiesel consumption has declined, and rising imports have led to a lower-than-expected apparent consumption, resulting in an increase in inventory levels [1][2]. Group 2: Future Production and Inventory Expectations - In October, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to rise by 6% month-on-month to 1.95 million tons, significantly higher than historical averages [2]. - However, the export growth is slowing, with estimates for October exports ranging between 1.47 million to 1.48 million tons, and inventories are projected to exceed 2.4 million tons by the end of October [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and External Influences - Domestic palm oil procurement remains active, particularly for shipments in November and December, but terminal demand is weak due to the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil [3]. - India's palm oil purchasing has slowed down, with a shift towards soybean and sunflower oil due to reduced export tariffs from Argentina, leading to a decrease in palm oil market share in India [3][6]. - The overall market sentiment is bearish, driven by declining demand expectations for biodiesel and edible oil exports, alongside better-than-expected production in major producing regions [8]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Considerations - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is set to be implemented in the second half of 2026, with expected biodiesel distribution increasing significantly, but there are concerns about inflation and funding shortages [4]. - The palm oil fund is projected to have a balance of $2.4 billion by the end of 2023, but this is expected to decline significantly by the end of 2025 due to rising subsidy costs [5].