低库存支持菜粕走强

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in temperature along the Yangtze River has led to a seasonal exit of aquaculture and a decrease in demand for rapeseed meal, but low inventory levels and supply tightness due to trade friction are supporting a rebound in rapeseed meal prices [2][5]. Group 1: Supply and Import Trends - China's rapeseed meal supply has contracted significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.8% from January to September [3]. - During the same period, rapeseed imports fell by 42.2%, totaling 2.446 million tons, with imports from Canada dropping from 4.008 million tons to 2.33 million tons, a decline of 41.9% [3]. - The share of Canadian rapeseed meal in China's total imports has decreased from 72% to 49% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Processing and Production Challenges - Domestic rapeseed oil mills are experiencing increased shutdowns despite high theoretical crushing profits, primarily due to rising import costs from anti-dumping policies and concerns over stringent inspections [4]. - The rapeseed crushing volume in October was only about 150,000 tons, and production is expected to remain low until the end of the year [4]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - Despite being in a traditional demand slump, low inventory levels are providing effective support for rapeseed meal prices, with coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory dropping to a historical low of 6,000 tons by the end of October [5]. - The market is facing a tight supply of usable rapeseed meal, exacerbated by high costs due to a 100% anti-dumping tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal [5]. - Overall, while domestic demand for rapeseed meal is weak, low import volumes are likely to sustain low inventory levels, suggesting that rapeseed meal prices may strengthen and move away from historical lows [5].