海外宏观｜骤雨新霁时：2026年海外资产配置展望

Economic Growth - The US economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by continued technology investment from the AI boom and a recovery in traditional investment demand [1] - The Eurozone is likely to see a rebound in consumer spending as external trade shocks diminish, although industrial supply chain risks remain [1] - Japan's corporate sales growth is slowing, with business investment expected to maintain momentum but not accelerate significantly [1] Inflation - The US inflation rate is projected to experience slight fluctuations and moderate cooling, with tariff impacts diminishing and stable rental inflation [2] - The Eurozone has entered a healthy and moderate inflation environment, which is expected to continue into next year [2] - Japan's new cabinet's gasoline tax reforms are anticipated to suppress the apparent inflation rate, although demand-driven inflation may remain robust [2] Monetary Policy - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to be between Waller and Hassett, with a potential 50bps rate cut early next year under Powell's leadership [3] - The European Central Bank is not expected to cut rates due to stable inflation, maintaining a deposit facility rate of 2% [3] - The Bank of Japan may raise rates by 25bps in the next quarter, maintaining a policy rate of 0.75% thereafter [3] Fiscal Policy - The effects of the US "Great Beautiful Act" are expected to manifest in early 2026, supporting overall consumption despite potential widening of wealth gaps [4] - The EU's fiscal stance is becoming neutral, characterized by continued defense expansion and restrained non-defense spending [4] - Japan's new Prime Minister Suga advocates for "responsible active fiscal policy," leading to moderate fiscal expansion [4] Asset Allocation - Market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the US dollar may ease under Waller's leadership, impacting gold negatively and slightly increasing long-term US Treasury yields [5] - If Hassett is elected, the dollar may weaken, benefiting gold, while long-term Treasury yields could rise due to inflation expectations [5] - The overall outlook for US stocks remains positive, driven by the AI trend, while demand recovery is expected to boost gold and industrial metals [5]