Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is currently exhibiting a strong trend due to multiple macroeconomic and fundamental factors, with optimistic expectations for the future driven by policy guidance and improved market sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent statements in the "14th Five-Year Plan" regarding the governance of "involution" and "disorderly competition" have increased attention on the coal industry, significantly boosting industry sentiment [1]. - The easing of the Sino-U.S. trade situation has provided strong support for black commodities, including coking coal, which is a key product in this category [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of coking coal remains tight, particularly in major production areas like Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, due to increased safety and environmental inspections and some mines undergoing relocation [1]. - Coking coal production last week was reported at 1.9933 million tons, a decrease of nearly 60,000 tons from the peak in October, while the capacity utilization rate of 314 washing plants dropped to 36.46% [1][2]. - The total inventory of coking coal is characterized by "upstream depletion and slight accumulation downstream," with upstream coal mine inventories decreasing to 4.3161 million tons [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Despite short-term fluctuations, overall demand remains stable, with downstream coking plants initiating a third round of price increases for coking coal, indicating strong procurement demand [2]. - Daily average pig iron production has decreased to 2.3636 million tons, but demand from steel mills is expected to remain stable following the lifting of emergency responses in Tangshan [2]. Group 4: Price Movements - Coking coal prices in production areas are on the rise, with prices for lean coking coal in the Changzhi market reaching 1,270 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 80 yuan per ton in October [2]. - The overall inventory structure, with moderate increases in downstream inventories, supports the market, indicating good demand for coking coal [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The coking coal futures market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, supported by macroeconomic recovery and tight supply dynamics [4]. - However, if there are no new fundamental positive stimuli or policy support, the upward momentum may weaken after prices reach equilibrium [4]. - Investors should closely monitor actual recovery in pig iron production, supply release in major production areas, and changes in imported coal volumes, as these factors will directly influence the future direction of the coking coal futures market [4].
多重利多支撑 焦煤短期偏强震荡
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-11-07 00:36