外资加速涌入日本楼市

Economic Overview - Japan is experiencing a significant rise in prices, leading to increased public concern about the cost of living [2][5] - The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates if economic activity and inflation trends align with expectations, with core CPI forecasts for fiscal years 2025-2027 remaining stable at 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0% respectively [2][3] Inflation Impact - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan has risen for 48 consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of over 3% for seven months from January to July this year [2][6] - The rising cost of living, including essential goods and housing, is putting significant pressure on Japanese households, with average rent as a percentage of income increasing by 1% to 5% [3][10] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate prices in major cities like Tokyo and Osaka have surged, with new residential prices in Tokyo's 23 wards averaging 133.09 million yen (approximately 6.25 million RMB), a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [10][12] - Foreign investment in Japan's real estate market is on the rise, accounting for 34% of total investment, with a total investment amount exceeding 1 trillion yen [12][15] Consumer Behavior - The rising prices are leading to a decrease in purchasing power, with real wages in Japan declining for eight consecutive months, indicating that nominal wage increases are not keeping pace with inflation [7][8] - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior towards saving and reducing discretionary spending due to the ongoing inflation [8][11] Long-term Concerns - The Japanese real estate market is facing potential overheating risks, with concerns about speculative trading not based on actual demand [17] - Long-term demographic trends, such as population decline and low interest in homeownership among younger generations, may constrain future real estate demand [17]