东吴证券:白酒板块周期筑底 高端、次高端需求要实现爬坑修复
SCSSCS(SH:601555) 智通财经网·2025-11-07 01:41

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the liquor industry indicates that companies are entering a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with future expectations centered on performance recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sector's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders down by 6.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's total revenue fell by 18.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 21.9% [2] - The macroeconomic environment is affecting demand recovery, particularly in high-end and mid-high-end liquor segments, which rely on a recovery from deflation [1][2] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Trends - The sales performance of liquor companies is under pressure, with many experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025 [2] - The pre-receipt balance for liquor companies is at a near two-year low, indicating potential challenges in future revenue realization [2] - High-end liquor companies are adjusting their product structures, while mid-high-end liquor sales are facing temporary pressure [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in Q1-Q3 2025 was 82.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw a margin of 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points [3] - Sales expense ratios for most liquor companies increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, although some companies improved their ratios due to better cost control [3] - The profit growth rates for high-end liquor (-0.5%) outperformed those of mid-high-end (-7.6%) and real estate liquor (-34.7%), indicating a trend of increasing cost control among leading companies [3]