AI泡沫？三个维度拆解工业富联后市走向

Core Viewpoint - The AI concept stocks are experiencing increased volatility, raising questions about whether the current hype is a short-term capital speculation or a long-term opportunity driven by technological transformation [1] Capital Dimension - The high capital expenditure in the AI sector is driven by demand rather than blind investment, with Morgan Stanley predicting global capital spending by hyperscale cloud providers to reach $445 billion in 2025 and $582 billion in 2026, benefiting companies like Nvidia and Industrial Fulian [2] - The demand for AI is validated by its productivity enhancement, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 15% increase in U.S. labor productivity over the next decade due to generative AI, leading to increased corporate investment [2] - The explosive growth in computing power demand, with AI model scale growing at an annual rate of 400%, is outpacing the 40% annual decline in computing costs, creating a supply-demand gap that drives continuous capital influx [2] Industry Dimension - The necessity for companies to invest in AI has shifted from being optional to essential, as AI has become a critical area for competition, with the goal of establishing a "digital computing moat" [3] - Generative AI is projected to create $20 trillion in present value benefits, with $8 trillion directed towards enterprises, significantly impacting market share and profitability over the next decade [3] - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 603.93 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 38.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52% year-on-year, highlighting its growth driven by AI server manufacturing and computing center construction [3] Market Dimension - The fluctuations in AI concept stocks are attributed to emotional volatility rather than a reversal of trends, with the AI industry following a spiral growth pattern characterized by technological breakthroughs and demand validation [5] - Investor sentiment in the emerging AI sector often leads to "expectation gaps," resulting in alternating periods of excessive optimism and pessimism, but long-term trends remain unaffected as AI's problem-solving capabilities improve [5] - The current market adjustments are seen as phase corrections rather than signs of a bubble burst, with rational capital investment and strategic necessity for AI positioning being key factors [6] Conclusion - The volatility in AI concept stocks is a phase adjustment rather than a trend reversal, with demand-driven capital investment and strategic importance of AI as a competitive field being crucial [6] - Investors are encouraged to focus on AI infrastructure, core chips, and vertical applications with demand support, considering companies like Industrial Fulian, New Yisheng, Cambrian, Tuwei Information, and Shenghong Technology as long-term tracking targets [7]