IC外汇平台：美国劳动力市场趋缓，美元短期强势或难持续？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar experienced its second-largest monthly gain in October 2023 due to a re-evaluation of risk and expectations amid a government shutdown that delayed key economic data releases. However, analysts suggest that this strength may be short-lived, with potential downward pressure expected as structural slowdowns in the labor market become apparent [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The labor market is undergoing a deeper structural cooling, with hiring rates slowing down, which is not seen as a temporary fluctuation. This trend may lead to a reassessment of economic resilience and interest rates once official employment data is released [1][4]. - Recent private employment indicators have shown signs of weakness, leading to a decline in the dollar index and increased bets on future Federal Reserve rate cuts. This indicates that the dollar's previous gains were not firmly supported by strong economic fundamentals [4][5]. - The non-farm payroll report prior to the government shutdown indicated a slowdown in employment growth, with the unemployment rate reaching a near three-year high. Additionally, corporate layoffs in October were at their highest level for that month in over twenty years, reflecting a decline in consumer spending and overall demand [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Many institutions predict that once complete employment data is available, the dollar may face renewed selling pressure, particularly against the euro, which could strengthen if labor market weakness is confirmed [4][5]. - There are differing opinions on the dollar's future; while some believe it may not enter a long-term weakening phase, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach to rate cuts, others emphasize the importance of upcoming employment and inflation data in shaping market sentiment [4][5].