万联证券：人形机器人打开增量空间 精密减速器国产替代进行时

Core Insights - Precision reducers are critical components for humanoid and industrial robots, with significant market growth expected by 2030, particularly in the harmonic reducer segment [1][3] - The domestic precision reducer manufacturers are making technological breakthroughs, benefiting from the ongoing domestic substitution process [1][3] Market Overview - The precision reducer market is steadily growing, with the harmonic reducer market in China reaching 2.49 billion yuan in 2023, showing a CAGR of 16.54% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - The RV reducer market is projected to reach 6 billion yuan by 2025, with Japanese companies currently holding a leading position [2] - The global precision planetary reducer market is expected to grow from 929 million USD in 2020 to 1.376 billion USD in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.32% [2] Demand and Technological Advancements - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to exceed 20 billion USD by 2028, creating substantial demand for precision reducers [3] - The estimated incremental market size for precision reducers ranges from 12.6 billion to 28.8 billion yuan by 2030, with harmonic reducers contributing 9 billion to 21.6 billion yuan [3] - Domestic precision reducer manufacturers are narrowing the gap with international standards through independent research and advanced technology adoption, enhancing the trend of domestic substitution [3]