10月制造业PMI为49.0%，高技术制造业仍处于扩张区间

Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) reached 1.19 on November 4, 2025, an increase of 0.07 from October 28 [1][3] - Key contributors to the YHEI increase include the Coastal Coal Freight Index and the Imported Dry Bulk Freight Index, which rose to 1.22 and 1.12, respectively [1][3] - The 30-City Commodity Housing Sales Index fell by 0.06 during the same week [1][3] Group 2: Manufacturing and PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [23][24] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively [23][24] - Large manufacturing enterprises saw a PMI drop to 49.9%, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs decreased to 48.7% and 47.1% [23][24] Group 3: Supply and Demand Indicators - The production index fell to 49.7% in October, influenced by the National Day holiday [24] - New orders and new export orders indices decreased to 48.8% and 45.9%, respectively [24] - The purchasing index dropped to 49.0%, indicating reduced procurement activity amid slowing production [24] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [24] - The construction sector's index fell to 49.1%, while the services sector's index rose to 50.2% [24] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank's net fund injection was 119.9 billion yuan for the week ending November 4, 2025 [5][6] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 17 basis points to 1.36%, while the seven-day repo rate fell by 16 basis points to 1.47% [10][11] - One-year and ten-year government bond yields decreased by 3.85 and 1.95 basis points to 1.39% and 1.80%, respectively [10][16] Group 6: Commodity Prices - Steel billet prices decreased by 1.68% over the past week and 6.39% year-on-year [25] - Cement prices increased by 0.12% week-on-week but fell by 22.28% year-on-year [25] - Power coal prices rose by 1.18% month-on-month but decreased by 4.20% year-on-year [25] Group 7: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first and third-tier cities fell by 20.39% and 26.08%, respectively, while second-tier cities saw a 1.59% increase [35][36] - Second-hand housing transaction areas decreased by 5.24%, 1.75%, and 17.04% in first, second, and third-tier cities, respectively [39] Group 8: Global Economic Indicators - The US Dollar Index rose by 1.49 points to 100.21, while the RMB/USD exchange rate fell by 227 basis points to 7.1233 [45][46] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX Index increased by 2.58 points to 19 [49]