马斯克说对了！继芯片后又一东西在中国全球疯抢，美国反被卡脖子

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing global shortage of transformers, driven by increasing demand from artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sources, with China positioned as a major beneficiary of this crisis [4][9][39]. Group 1: Transformer Shortage - A global "transformer shortage" is emerging, with long wait times for orders, often extending to three to four years for large transformers and two and a half years for smaller ones [6][9]. - Transformer prices have surged by 60% since 2020, with China's transformer exports nearing 30 billion RMB in the first eight months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 50% [9][30]. - The demand for transformers is being driven by the rapid growth of AI and electric vehicles, with over 17 million new electric vehicles expected to be on the road in 2024 alone [11][13][16]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The aging electrical grid in the U.S. exacerbates the shortage, with 70% of transformers in service beyond their 25-year lifespan, necessitating the replacement of approximately 500,000 transformers in the next five years [18][30]. - Manufacturers are hesitant to expand production capacity due to fears of a potential market downturn, leading to long order queues and limited domestic production capabilities in the U.S. and Europe [20][21]. - In contrast, China's manufacturing ecosystem is robust, controlling 60% of global transformer production and having developed a complete supply chain from raw materials to end products [22][39]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - China has made significant advancements in producing core materials for transformers, such as oriented silicon steel sheets, reducing reliance on imports and enhancing production efficiency [24][28]. - The introduction of innovative products, like the world's first 500 kV plant oil transformer, demonstrates China's leadership in technology and sustainability [28][39]. - The flexibility of Chinese manufacturers allows for rapid design adjustments to meet diverse customer needs, contrasting with the slower response times of Western firms [32][39]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Despite high tariffs on Chinese transformers, U.S. allies are increasingly turning to China for supplies, highlighting the urgent need for transformers in projects like renewable energy grids [30][35]. - The U.S. government has begun to grant tariff exemptions, indicating a shift in strategy as the demand for transformers continues to rise [37][39]. - The article concludes that China's ability to provide stable, efficient, and innovative solutions positions it favorably in the global market, especially during this supply chain crisis [39].