美定下目标，两年之内，要解决对华稀土依赖，称中国“并不可靠”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. aims to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earth metals within two years, citing concerns over China's reliability as a supplier [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet stated that the U.S. will find alternative sources for rare earth metals within 12 to 24 months, with President Trump supporting this initiative [1][3]. - The U.S. is focusing on "supply chain security" and "technological hegemony," particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors and defense, where rare earths are critical [3]. - A key initiative includes an $8.5 billion agreement with Australia to restructure the supply chain, aiming for a "Australia mining - U.S.-Australia processing - Western consumption" model [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - The U.S. faces significant technological barriers in rare earth separation, requiring advanced chemical extraction processes that are currently lacking domestically [4]. - MP Company, the only U.S. rare earth miner, can only process light rare earths and lacks the capability to handle heavy rare earths essential for high-end permanent magnets [4][6]. - Australia's Lynas Corporation, despite having rich reserves, also relies on China for refining, and its U.S. processing facility will take 3-5 years to become operational, exceeding the U.S. two-year timeline [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Global Implications - China's dominance in the rare earth sector is attributed to decades of technological accumulation and a complete industrial system, producing over 300,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron magnets annually, compared to the U.S. target of only 1,000 tons [6]. - The U.S. Department of Defense's price floor for heavy rare earths is nearly double the market price, which could increase costs for defense and renewable energy sectors, undermining their international competitiveness [6]. - The U.S. strategy may lead to a fragmented global resource allocation, as it attempts to create an exclusive supply chain through alliances like AUKUS, countering China's market-driven approach [6][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While the U.S. aims to diversify its supply chain, the short-term advantages of China's rare earth industry remain irreplaceable, particularly in heavy rare earth separation technology [8]. - A more pragmatic approach for the U.S. would be to engage in global collaboration within the rare earth supply chain, rather than pursuing unrealistic decoupling goals [8].