Core Insights - UBS warns that the narrative of "low hiring, low layoffs" in the U.S. job market is collapsing, with cumulative layoffs reaching the highest level since 2009 as of October [1][4] - The latest Challenger job cut data shows that seasonally adjusted layoffs in October reached 192,000, a significant increase of 126,000 month-over-month [1] - Private sector layoffs surged to 157,000, the highest level for October on record, excluding government and non-profit sectors [1] - The technology sector saw layoffs of 25,000 in October, while the warehousing and logistics sector experienced a dramatic increase of 46,000 [1] - AI-related layoffs jumped from zero in September to 31,000 in October [1] Layoff Statistics - Cumulative layoffs for 2025 have reached 760,000, surpassing the 601,000 recorded in the same period of 2024 and marking the highest figure for any year since 2009 [4] - The average monthly layoffs over the past six months stand at 85,000, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic norm of 30,000 to 50,000 from 2014 to 2019 [7] Hiring Trends - Seasonal hiring plans for September and October totaled 400,000, well below the average of 625,000 from 2014 to 2019 and lower than the figures for 2023 and 2024 [8] - Amazon plans to maintain its seasonal hiring of 250,000 workers, which, despite appearing stable, indicates a cautious approach amid declining demand [8] - Target has ceased disclosing the number of seasonal positions, reflecting a lack of optimism in hiring [8] Market Implications - UBS warns that the widening cracks in the job market pose risks for investors betting on a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, as record-high layoff data contrasts with ongoing debates over minor fluctuations in non-farm payroll data [8]
今年美国裁员人数已创2009年以来最高，“不招聘也不裁员”的就业市场认知正被打破
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-07 05:45