10月经济前瞻：渐行渐缓，蓄势明年

Group 1: Industrial Production and Economic Trends - Industrial production showed signs of slowdown in October, with expected year-on-year growth of 5.3% for industrial added value [2] - Manufacturing demand has weakened due to pre-holiday demand release and international trade uncertainties, with the new orders index dropping to 48.8% [3] - The service sector experienced an increase in activity, with the business activity index rising to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related consumption [3] Group 2: Consumer Retail and Spending - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in October, a slight decline from the previous 3% [4] - The effectiveness of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has diminished, compounded by reduced fiscal support, leading to pressure on retail sales [5] - The restaurant and alcohol retail sectors are expected to remain under pressure due to regulatory measures affecting public spending [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by 0.9% year-on-year from January to October, with manufacturing investment growth at 4.0% and real estate investment down by 14.1% [7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve slowly, with recent developments in US-China trade negotiations potentially boosting investor confidence [8] - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize, with new policy financial tools fully deployed, indicating a potential recovery in construction activity [12] Group 4: Export and Trade Dynamics - October export growth is expected to be 3.2%, with imports at 1.6%, reflecting a shift towards non-US markets [17] - China's share in non-US markets has increased, with significant growth in exports to Africa and Latin America [18] - The trade cycle between investment and exports to non-US countries is strengthening, particularly in manufacturing sectors [19] Group 5: Price Trends and Inflation - Consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a slight increase to 0.1% year-on-year, while producer price index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [20] - Pork prices remain weak, contributing to overall low inflationary pressures, while oil prices are also under pressure due to global supply dynamics [21][22] - Core CPI is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend, supported by holiday consumption and promotional activities [22] Group 6: Employment and Labor Market - The urban unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 5.1%, with ongoing government efforts to support job creation for graduates [24] - Employment policies are focused on stabilizing job opportunities, particularly for vulnerable groups such as migrant workers [24][25] Group 7: Financial Data and Monetary Policy - Social financing is projected to increase by 750 billion, with a decline in new loans expected at 1 trillion [26][27] - The M2 money supply growth is anticipated to decrease to 8.1%, reflecting weak demand for credit and a shift towards non-bank financial products [28] - Future monetary policy is expected to balance financial stability with support for the real economy, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than aggressive tightening [29]