华创证券：钢铁迎来新一轮“反内卷” 行业格局有望重构

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is facing a significant supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to a rapid decline in demand for construction steel since the second half of 2021, leading to an oversupply in the market [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Since the second half of 2021, domestic steel demand has sharply decreased following negative growth in real estate construction starts, while supply has not adjusted accordingly, resulting in an oversupply situation [2][3]. - The current oversupply cycle is characterized by a rapid decline in demand for construction steel, while demand for manufacturing steel remains resilient, causing a shift in some companies' product focus and exacerbating competition within the industry [2][3]. - The industry is trapped in a negative cycle of oversupply leading to price declines, which in turn compresses profits and limits the ability to reduce production significantly, further worsening supply-demand conditions [2][3]. Policy and Structural Changes - The macroeconomic environment shows a continuous decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with industrial profits significantly lower than during previous supply-side reforms, necessitating a resolution to the structural imbalance in supply and demand [3][4]. - Historical supply-side reforms during the "13th Five-Year Plan" and "14th Five-Year Plan" have led to positive changes in the industry, suggesting that similar policies could benefit the steel sector again [4][5]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to address the structural issues by promoting capacity control and supporting advanced enterprises while phasing out outdated production capacity [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - The shift towards high-end and green production since the 2016 supply-side reform has created differentiation among companies, with the current "anti-involution" policies expected to further optimize the industry structure and support leading enterprises [7]. - Companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, Shougang, Hebei Steel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable positioning in the evolving market landscape [7].