宁可转向印度，也不向加拿大采购？卡尼这一步“失算”了

Core Viewpoint - Canada faces significant trade challenges with China after imposing high tariffs on electric vehicles, leading to China's retaliatory actions against Canadian canola imports, which has resulted in a shift in China's sourcing strategy towards Australia and India [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Market Dynamics - Following the imposition of tariffs by Canada, China ceased importing over 4 million tons of canola annually from Canada, prompting the Canadian government to seek a restoration of trade relations [1]. - China has begun to significantly increase its imports of Australian canola, filling the gap left by Canadian canola in the Chinese market [3]. - India is also emerging as a competitor, with record procurement levels and an increase in canola planting area, expected to reach a historical high [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on Canadian Agriculture - In the first half of the fiscal year, Canada saw a dramatic decline in canola exports to China, with Saskatchewan's canola farmers facing a "bumper crop but no profit" situation due to low prices and excess inventory [5]. - The Canadian canola industry is heavily reliant on the Chinese market, with 67% of canola from Saskatchewan depending on it, which poses a significant risk to employment and economic stability in the sector [5][7]. - The price competitiveness of Indian canola meal, at $202 per ton, compared to the EU market price of $332 per ton, places Canadian products at a disadvantage [7]. Group 3: Government Response and Policy Adjustments - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Carney, has begun to adjust its policy towards China, signaling a willingness to engage in dialogue and potentially lift tariffs on electric vehicles in exchange for easing restrictions on canola imports [9]. - There is a growing call from Canadian agricultural leaders for the federal government to abandon discriminatory tariffs and repair relations with China [9]. - China's stance remains firm, emphasizing that any future cooperation must be based on mutual respect and equality, rejecting any opportunistic behavior from Canada [9].