JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 智通财经网·2025-11-07 06:57Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts predict that Bitcoin prices could rise to around $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months as leverage resets are completed and Bitcoin's volatility relative to gold continues to improve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The cryptocurrency market has retraced nearly 20% from recent highs, with the most significant drop occurring on October 10 due to record liquidations in the perpetual futures market [1]. - A smaller liquidation event occurred on November 3, triggered by a $120 million hack of the Balancer protocol in the decentralized finance sector, which further undermined investor confidence [1]. - Analysts believe that the deleveraging phase in perpetual futures is largely over, as the ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to market capitalization has returned to historical norms [1]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Analysts highlight that perpetual futures are currently the most noteworthy investment tool, with signs indicating that the deleveraging process may have concluded [2]. - The rising volatility of gold has made Bitcoin more attractive on a risk-adjusted return basis, with the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold dropping below 2.0, indicating that Bitcoin currently occupies about 1.8 times the risk capital of gold [2]. - To match the total investment scale of gold, which is approximately $6.2 trillion, Bitcoin's market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion would need to increase by nearly 67%, suggesting a theoretical price close to $170,000 [2]. - There remains a significant discount of about $68,000 from Bitcoin's current price relative to its fair value adjusted for volatility against gold, indicating substantial upside potential in the next 6 to 12 months [2].