财联社C50风向指数调查：年末资金大概率延续平稳宽松，本轮国债买卖重启后四季度降准概率降低

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Index indicates that liquidity pressure in November is expected to increase compared to October, with a liquidity gap around 2 trillion yuan, as many market institutions anticipate seasonal pressures due to the maturity of financial instruments [1][2][3]. Liquidity Conditions - In October, the central bank maintained a relatively proactive liquidity injection strategy, with a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan, the largest monthly value since March 2025 [2]. - The central bank's operations included a 1.1 trillion yuan front-loaded reverse repo to ease the liquidity pressure at the beginning of the month [2]. - The liquidity gap for November is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with some institutions suggesting it could exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which many institutions believe could replace the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [1][7]. - The necessity for an RRR cut in the fourth quarter is perceived to be lower, with 17 out of 20 institutions indicating a reduced likelihood of such a move [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of government bond trading may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, allowing for continued liquidity support without aggressive monetary easing [8][9]. Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to experience renewed downward trends, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially approaching the low of 1.7% seen in August [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that while the central bank's easing measures may be less aggressive, the need for monetary policy support remains due to ongoing economic challenges [9].