美元指数“破百”或昙花一现，2026年走势可能前高后低

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in the US dollar index above 100 is driven by a combination of factors, including a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, political uncertainties in Europe and Japan, and tightening liquidity conditions. However, analysts believe that this upward trend may not be sustainable in the long term, with a potential return to a downward trajectory for the dollar index [1][9]. Group 1: Factors Driving Dollar Strength - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August, reaching a high of 100.36, a 4.3% increase from the mid-September low of 96.2 [1]. - Analysts attribute the dollar's strength to three main factors: a reduction in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, political instability in Europe and Japan, and tightening liquidity conditions [1][6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's recent statements, particularly from Chairman Jerome Powell, have tempered expectations for further rate cuts, with a significant drop in the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December to 67%, down approximately 15 percentage points from a month ago [5][9]. Group 2: Political Uncertainties Impacting Non-USD Currencies - Political instability in France, the UK, and Japan has contributed to the weakening of non-USD currencies, enhancing the relative strength of the dollar [6]. - In France, the recent political turmoil led to a downgrade of the country's sovereign rating outlook to "negative" by Moody's [6]. - The UK faces economic challenges, as indicated by the Prime Minister's announcement of tax increases, which negatively impacted the British pound [6]. Group 3: Liquidity Conditions and Market Sentiment - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to a tightening of liquidity, with bank reserves dropping to their lowest levels since 2025, and the overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) rising to 4.22% [7][8]. - Despite the tightening, analysts do not foresee a liquidity crisis similar to that of 2008, attributing current pressures to technical factors rather than systemic issues [8]. - The Federal Reserve has been actively managing liquidity through various tools, indicating that while there are pressures, the overall dollar liquidity remains manageable [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook for the Dollar Index - Analysts generally agree that the recent rise in the dollar index is likely to be temporary, with expectations of a return to a downward trend as the US government shutdown ends and potentially weak economic data emerges [9][10]. - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100 mark in the fourth quarter, influenced by various economic and political factors, leading to a potentially volatile outlook [10].