低利率时代的养老基金全球化配置

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and imbalances in China's pension system, particularly focusing on the three pillars of pension finance and the impact of a low-interest-rate environment on pension sustainability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Overview of China's Pension System - China's pension system consists of three pillars: the first pillar is a government-managed public pension plan, the second pillar includes occupational pension plans, and the third pillar consists of voluntary personal savings [2]. - As of the end of 2024, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above in China is 15.6%, indicating a growing demographic challenge for the pension system [1]. Group 2: First Pillar Challenges - The first pillar faces increasing pressure from a growing funding gap, with a projected depletion of the basic pension fund by 2035 if current trends continue [3][4]. - The overall investment return rate of the pension fund is low, with only about 1.8 trillion yuan of the 7.8 trillion yuan in basic pension fund reserves being managed for a 5% annualized return, while the remaining 6 trillion yuan is invested in low-yield products [4]. Group 3: Second and Third Pillar Limitations - The second pillar has low participation rates, with only 0.2% of enterprises participating, covering just 3.2% of the workforce, significantly lower than developed countries [7]. - The third pillar exhibits a phenomenon of "high account openings but low contributions," with a participation rate of over 25% but an actual contribution rate of only 22% [8]. Group 4: Impact of Low-Interest Rates - The long-term low-interest-rate environment, with ten-year government bond yields dropping below 2%, poses significant challenges for the pension system, affecting both the asset returns and the sustainability of pension payouts [9][10]. - Research indicates that the overall pension replacement rate in China is expected to decline due to demographic changes and low-interest rates, exacerbating intergenerational income disparities [9]. Group 5: International Experience and Lessons - The article highlights successful pension fund management strategies from Norway and Japan, which have maintained robust pension systems despite low-interest environments through diversified investment strategies and transparent governance [11][12]. - Norway's Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) has a diversified investment strategy and a transparent governance structure, managing assets of approximately 1.73 trillion USD [12][13]. - Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has shifted its asset allocation to increase overseas investments, significantly improving its returns and maintaining pension fund balance [18][19]. Group 6: Recommendations for China's Pension System - The article suggests that China should deepen the internationalization and diversification of its pension fund investments, aiming for a balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks and enhance returns [26]. - It emphasizes the need for improved transparency in pension fund management to build public trust and encourage long-term investment [28].