Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-07 08:05Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), highlighting its focus on e-commerce and cloud computing, with growth potential in the Taobao flash purchase business and a leading position in the AI cloud market [1] Financial Projections - For FY2026, Alibaba's net profit is projected to be CNY 1,030 billion, with subsequent years showing net profits of CNY 1,614 billion in FY2027 and CNY 1,935 billion in FY2028, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 57%, and 20% respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 27, 17, and 14 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [1] Revenue and EBITA Estimates - For FY2026 Q2, total revenue is expected to reach CNY 2,425 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 3%, with adjusted EBITA of CNY 57 billion, a significant decline of 86% [1] - Breakdown of revenue by business segment includes: - Chinese e-commerce group (including Chinese e-commerce, instant retail, and wholesale) projected revenue of CNY 1,268 billion with an adjusted EBITA margin of 7% [1] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group expected revenue of CNY 371 billion with an adjusted EBITA margin of 0.1% [1] - Cloud Intelligence Group anticipated revenue of CNY 385 billion with an adjusted EBITA margin of 9% [1]