就业数据强劲金价仍狂飙！贵金属集体开挂，就业利好竟成推手？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices, despite strong U.S. employment data, highlights the dominance of safe-haven demand over traditional market logic, which typically sees gold prices pressured by positive economic indicators [1][6][12]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, gold prices increased by 1.2%, reaching $3977.94 per ounce, while December gold futures rose by 0.7% to $3989.80 per ounce [3]. - The entire precious metals sector showed synchronized gains, with silver up 1.9% at $47.98 per ounce, platinum rising 1% to $1550.60 per ounce, and palladium surging 2.2% to $1421.96 per ounce [3]. Employment Data Impact - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 private sector jobs, significantly above the expected 28,000, which typically would suggest a stronger economy and potentially higher interest rates, negatively impacting gold [4][8]. - Despite the positive employment data, gold prices rose due to a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion, as investors moved funds from the stock market to gold [6][12]. Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion - The decline in U.S. stock prices from recent highs raised concerns about overvaluation, prompting a shift in capital towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [6][12]. - Analysts noted that the current market environment, characterized by stock volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, has reinforced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [12][14]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, expectations for further cuts have diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 70%, down from over 90% [8]. - The reduction in rate cut expectations has not deterred gold's price increase, further emphasizing the prevailing safe-haven demand [8][12]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearings on the legality of tariffs could impact future trade policies, adding another layer of uncertainty that supports gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent performance of gold amidst favorable employment data serves as a reminder for investors to maintain a balanced asset allocation, particularly in volatile market conditions [14].